The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) released a report on the expected transformational power-sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL).
Most notably, NREL found:
- Clean electricity as a percentage of total generation could increase to over 80% in 2030 under mid-case assumptions, with a range of 71% to 90% when considering uncertainties in technology costs, fuel prices, policy impacts, and infrastructure deployment constraints.
- Clean electricity growth lowers bulk power costs by $50 to $115 billion through 2030, saving consumers money.
- Power-sector carbon dioxide emissions decline by 84% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels in the mid case, with a range of 72% to 91%. The reductions through 2030 result in avoided global climate damages ranging from approximately $670 billion to $960 billion.
- Power-sector air pollution reductions can help prevent up to 11,000-18,000 deaths through 2030. The resulting savings from these health benefits are valued financially at as much as $190 billion
This new research shows that IRA and BIL can drive rapid, near-term growth in clean electricity, while reducing costs for consumers, lowering harmful pollutants, mitigating climate change, and creating new economic opportunities. Fully realizing these benefits requires breaking down deployment barriers and continued technology advancement. The NREL study finds that scenarios with a stylized set of deployment constraints or limited cost reductions may still yield ~70% clean electricity shares by 2030, but those shares are more-than 10 percentage points lower than in the mid case.